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Cry Me A Riverbend II

Friday, January 07, 2005

A Bleak Scenario If Iraqi Kurds Declare an Independent State

Iraqis are seeking a referendum from the U.N. to have Iraqi Kurdistan recognized as an independent Kurdish homeland.

Meanwhile, Kurdo has been increasingly dubious regarding the feasibility of the Iraqi elections, and has been hinting that postponing them might not be a bad idea.
(here and here)

The Iranian Kurd Medya is saying flat out that permitting a Shi'a majority democracy is a bad idea, and he is openly calling for a partition of Iraq:
If Sunni [Arab], Shiite and Kurds can't live toghether why should we make them to do so ?

Medya considers the Unified Iraq policy to be a Turkish plot to keep Kurdistan bottled up.

I think some elements among the Iraqi Kurds have decided they don't want to be part of a democratic Iraq (in which they are a minority among a Shi'a majority) any more than radical Sunni Arabs do.

To be fair, there are plenty of Kurdish voices that are openly backing the elections, even if they are distressed at the current events:
Dilnareen
Sami
Yad

I'm sympathetic to the Kurds in their asperations for an independent state. They've wanted it for a long time, and one can imagine that after being driven from their homes and gassed by an Arab-dominated government, they would not see themselves as patriotic "Iraqis".

But here is the reason why (for the time being) the Iraqi Kurds must remain part of Iraq.

If they break loose of Iraq, the first question to be settled will be their exact borders. This brings up the question of Kirkuk, but it puts in dispute places like Mosul which also have large Arab populations. When the Kurds break loose, three things will happen:


  • The government of Iraq will lose its core fighting-force in the form of the Peshmurga, making it less able to to fight insurgencies within its non-Kurdistan areas

  • The Sunnis will seek their own homeland separate from the Shi'a -- and the battle for Baghdad will begin.

  • The Arabs and Kurds will start fighting over Mosul, Kirkuk, etc.
What is the next thing that will happen? Turkey, Syria and Iran will clamp down on their own Kurdish populations to premptively prevent similar independence actions in their own countries. This means the hard-won (albeit insufficient) liberties recently secured for Kurds in Turkey will be lost. These clamp-downs will probably not succeed in preventing revolts and there will be multiple Halabjas within those countries.

Simultaneously, each of these countries also will move into portions of the new Kurdistan (as well as Iraq) to secure real estate as a buffer to the chaos that will swiftly envelope all of Iraq.

So the new Kurdistan will be at war with the countries on its West, East, North, and South: Turkey, Iran, Syria, Iraq and the attempted independent Sunni state.

At the same time, each of these entities will begin handing out money and supplies to secure aliances with the local Arabs and other ethnicalities, and with rival Kurdish groups within the new Kurdish state. So in addition to fighting a war on every front, the new Kurdistan will be engaged in a no-holds-barred civil war with itself. Not to mention that it will have an increasingly radicalized Arab failed-state(s) on its southern border -- it's only path to a port. Kurdistan will become the center of a maelstrom with a maelstrom.

The result? Tens of thousands of dead Kurds throughout the Middle East. At least four Middle East nations in flames. Iraq becomes a black-hole. The surrounding dictatorships smugly assure their citizens of the dangers of liberty, and hold up the Iraqi Kurdistan as proof that the Kurds can't be trusted with self-governance.

For now the Kurds need to concentrate on keeping Kurds free in Iraq.

As George Packer said in his New Yorker article,

Fanaticism is the legacy of Saddam’s Arabization policy.

We must not let Saddam win.

5 Comments:

  • you are
    propogandizer of destruction , gloom merchant !

    I am sure Turkish Secuiry Homleand will be happy to give money to you, to continue this blog !

    you say if kurdistan, be independece, every body will attack to it !

    now let me see
    Turkey has been waiting to go to EU for 80 years,
    are they gonna attack to southern Kurdistan, while they have no annoy for Turkey ?

    Turkey will loose more if they attack to Southern Kurdsitan ! Turkey has a weak ecnomony , just imagine Turkish Kurds will destory every company and street !

    but if Turkey don't attack to southern kurdistan,
    I am sure, Sothern Kurds won't clain Turkish Kurdistan !

    and about Iran and Syria !

    Iran and Syria are not in the suitiotion to attack to some place ! they are under pressure for Atomic bomb , Human Right , Terrorist ! why they shoul make more headache for theirself !

    and about Arabs ! there should be the only problem
    I think our peshemargas are strong enough to defend kurdistan !

    mind that Iraq government cant even control 1 street in baghdad and they are not united ! they are shia and sonny they cant focus on fighting with kurds !!

    You are giving Negative Energy To the Kurds

    if i were you I would , send a post, about "if kurdistan be seprate country, we must help to take care of it , we must warnt turkey and iran ...to not make noise !"


    YeaH !

    By Blogger Medya, at 6:48 PM  

  • you are
    propogandizer of destruction , gloom merchant !
    Hmmm....this sounds frighteningly like me talking about Riverbend.

    Well, as they say, "One person's gloom merchant..."

    By Blogger CMAR II, at 6:51 PM  

  • Hey CMAR,
    Did you notice those assholes who murdered Healing Iraq's cousin are getting off with slaps on the wrist? They're pretending that the guy isn't dead.

    Also, the soldier who blew the whistle over Abu Ghraib; he and his family are having to hide out from chickenhawk patriots who've been sending him death threats...

    By Blogger littlewhy, at 6:18 PM  

  • littlewhy,

    The trial is still going on.

    This spring I truly thought they were going to get off with a slap on the wrists and I vented my outrage here.

    Now I'm leaning toward the belief that their penalties will be quite stiff...20 years. Granted Zeyad's family probably thinks -- reasonably -- they deserve death or life in prison. But I think that if these guys were cops in the US, 20 years is probably what they would get.

    Here's an article about testimony from the trial last Wednesday.

    The defense is claiming the guy is not dead, but since I'm guessing the military rejected a plea-bargain, well...what other choice do they have? Insanity?

    By Blogger CMAR II, at 2:49 PM  

  • "One person's gloom merchant..." Is another persons' dead on correct analyst.

    By Blogger Kender, at 8:15 AM  

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